{"id":21432,"date":"2022-05-03T15:01:05","date_gmt":"2022-05-03T15:01:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/republicancommunist.org\/blog\/?p=21432"},"modified":"2022-10-28T18:01:39","modified_gmt":"2022-10-28T18:01:39","slug":"author-jacques-baud","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/republicancommunist.org\/blog\/2022\/05\/03\/author-jacques-baud\/","title":{"rendered":"Former NATO military analyst blows the whistle on West\u2019s Ukraine Invasion narrative"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"font-weight: 400; text-align: center;\"><strong>The following <a href=\"https:\/\/scheerpost.com\/2022\/04\/09\/former-nato-military-analyst-blows-the-whistle-on-wests-ukraine-invasion-narrative\/\">article by Jaques Baud<\/a>, intelligence and security consultant and former NATO military analyst, has been much posted by those on the Left opposed to giving support to the Ukrainian people in their opposition to Putin&#8217;s invasion. The <em>EL&amp;SD<\/em> Editorial Board \u00a0voted by a majority to post this article. Allan Armstrong has written a comment.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400; text-align: center;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/scheerpost.com\/2022\/04\/09\/former-nato-military-analyst-blows-the-whistle-on-wests-ukraine-invasion-narrative\/#comments\"><strong>\u00a0FORMER NATO MILITARY ANALYST BLOWS WHISTLE ON WEST&#8217;S \u00a0UKRAINE INVASION NARRATIVE<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<ul style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/republicancommunist.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/jacbaud.jpg.webp\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-21436\" src=\"http:\/\/republicancommunist.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/jacbaud.jpg.webp\" alt=\"\" width=\"200\" height=\"200\" srcset=\"http:\/\/republicancommunist.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/jacbaud.jpg.webp 200w, http:\/\/republicancommunist.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/jacbaud.jpg-150x150.webp 150w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 200px) 100vw, 200px\" \/><\/a><\/li>\n<li><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>PART ONE: ON THE ROAD TO WAR<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For years, from Mali to Afghanistan, I worked for peace and risked my life for it.\u00a0It is therefore not a question of justifying the war, but of understanding what led us to it.\u00a0I note that the \u201cexperts\u201d who take turns on the television sets analyze the situation based on dubious information, most often hypotheses turned into facts, and therefore we no longer manage to understand what is happening.\u00a0That\u2019s how you create panic.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The problem is not so much who is right in this conflict, but how our leaders make their decisions.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Let\u2019s try to examine the roots of the conflict.\u00a0It starts with\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rts.ch\/info\/monde\/6772950-les-separatistes-auraient-renforce-leurs-capacites-dattaque-en-ukraine.html\"><strong>those<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0who for the past eight years have been talking to us about \u201cseparatists\u201d or \u201cindependence\u201d from the Donbass.\u00a0It\u2019s wrong.\u00a0The referendums conducted by the two self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Luhansk in May 2014 were not \u201d\u00a0\u00a0<em>independence \u201d (\u043d\u0435\u0437\u0430\u0432\u0438\u0441\u0438\u043c\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c)\u00a0<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/upload.wikimedia.org\/wikipedia\/commons\/4\/4d\/Decree_on_holding_the_Donetsk_status_referendum.png\"><strong>referendums , as some\u00a0<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rts.ch\/info\/monde\/5839879-pres-de-90-de-oui-a-lindependance-a-donetsk-selon-les-prorusses.html\"><strong>unscrupulous journalists<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0\u00a0claimed\u00a0, but\u00a0\u201d\u00a0\u00a0<em>self-determination<\/em>\u00a0\u00a0\u201d or \u201d\u00a0\u00a0<em>autonomy<\/em>\u00a0(\u0441\u0430\u043c\u043e\u0441\u0442\u043e\u044f\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044c).\u00a0The term \u201cpro-Russian\u201d suggests that Russia was a party to the conflict, which was not the case, and the term \u201cRussian speakers\u201d would have been more honest.\u00a0Moreover, these referendums were conducted against the advice of Vladimir Putin.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In fact, these republics did not seek to separate from Ukraine, but to have a statute of autonomy guaranteeing them the use of the Russian language as an official language.\u00a0Because the first legislative act of the new government resulting from the overthrow of President Yanukovych, was the abolition, on February 23, 2014, of the Kivalov-Kolesnichenko law of 2012 which made Russian an official language.\u00a0A bit as if putschists decided that French and Italian would no longer be official languages \u200b\u200bin Switzerland.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This decision causes a storm in the Russian-speaking population.\u00a0This resulted in fierce repression against the Russian-speaking regions (Odessa, Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov, Lugansk and Donetsk) which began in February 2014 and led to a militarization of the situation and a few massacres (in Odessa and Mariupol, for the most important).\u00a0At the end of summer 2014, only the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Lugansk remained.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">At this stage, too rigid and stuck in a doctrinaire approach to the operational art, the Ukrainian staffs suffered the enemy without succeeding in imposing themselves.\u00a0Examination of the course of the fighting in 2014-2016 in the Donbass shows that the Ukrainian general staff systematically and mechanically applied the same operational plans.\u00a0However, the war waged by the autonomists was then very close to what we observed in the Sahel: very mobile operations carried out with light means.\u00a0With a more flexible and less doctrinaire approach, the rebels were able to exploit the inertia of the Ukrainian forces to \u201ctrap\u201d them repeatedly.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In 2014, I am at NATO, responsible for the fight against the proliferation of small arms, and we are trying to detect Russian arms deliveries to the rebels in order to see if Moscow is involved.\u00a0The information that we receive then comes practically all from the Polish intelligence services and does not \u201cmatch\u201d with the information from the OSCE: in spite of rather crude allegations, we do not observe any delivery of arms and materials Russian military.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The rebels are armed thanks to the defections of Russian-speaking Ukrainian units which cross over to the rebel side.\u00a0As the Ukrainian failures progressed, the entire tank, artillery or anti-aircraft battalions swelled the ranks of the autonomists.\u00a0This is what drives the Ukrainians to commit to the Minsk Accords.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But, just after signing the Minsk 1 Accords, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko launched a vast anti-terrorist operation (ATO\/\u0410\u043d\u0442\u0438\u0442\u0435\u0440\u043e\u0440\u0438\u0441\u0442\u0438\u0447\u043d\u0430 \u043e\u043f\u0435\u0440\u0430\u0446\u0456\u044f) against Donbass.\u00a0<em>Bis repetita placent<\/em>\u00a0\u00a0: poorly advised by NATO officers, the Ukrainians suffered a crushing defeat at Debaltsevo which forced them to commit to the Minsk 2 Agreements\u2026<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It is essential to recall here that the Minsk 1 (September 2014) and Minsk 2 (February 2015) Agreements provided for neither the separation nor the independence of the Republics, but their autonomy\u00a0<em>within the framework<\/em>\u00a0of Ukraine.\u00a0Those who have read\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.securitycouncilreport.org\/atf\/cf\/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9%7D\/s_res_2202.pdf\"><strong>the Accords<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0(they are very, very, very few) will find that it is written in full that the status of the republics was to be negotiated between Kiev and the representatives of the republics, for an\u00a0<em>internal solution<\/em>\u00a0in Ukraine .<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This is why since 2014, Russia has systematically demanded their application while refusing to be a party to the negotiations, because it was an internal matter for Ukraine.\u00a0On the other side, the Westerners \u2013 led by France \u2013 systematically tried to replace the Minsk Accords with the \u201cNormandy format\u201d, which brought Russians and Ukrainians face to face.\u00a0However, let us remember, there were\u00a0<em>never<\/em>\u00a0any Russian troops in the Donbass before February 23-24, 2022. Moreover,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/2018\/10\/25\/counting-the-dead-in-europes-forgotten-war-ukraine-conflict-donbass-osce\/\"><strong>OSCE observers<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0have never observed the slightest trace of Russian units operating in the Donbass.\u00a0Thus, the US intelligence map published by the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/national-security\/russia-ukraine-invasion\/2021\/12\/03\/98a3760e-546b-11ec-8769-2f4ecdf7a2ad_story.html\"><strong>Washington Post<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0on December 3, 2021 does not show Russian troops in Donbass.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In October 2015, Vasyl Hrytsak,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.kyivpost.com\/article\/content\/war-against-ukraine\/sbu-registers-involvement-of-56-russian-in-military-actions-against-ukraine-since-military-conflict-in-eastern-ukraien-unfolded-399718.html\"><strong>director of the Ukrainian Security Service<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0(SBU), confessed that only 56 Russian fighters had been observed in the Donbass.\u00a0It was an even comparable to that of the Swiss going to fight in Bosnia during the weekends, in the 1990s, or the French who are going to fight in Ukraine today.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Ukrainian army was then in a deplorable state.\u00a0In October 2018, after four years of war,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/vesti.ua\/strana\/309880-nazvany-neboevye-poteri-vsu-na-donbasse\"><strong>Ukraine\u2019s chief military prosecutor Anatoly Matios<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0said that Ukraine had lost 2,700 men in the Donbass: 891 from disease, 318 from traffic accidents, 177 from other accidents, 175 from poisoning (alcohol, drugs), 172 from careless handling of weapons, 101 from breaches of safety rules, 228 from murder and 615 from suicide.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In fact, the army is undermined by the corruption of its cadres and no longer enjoys the support of the population.\u00a0According to a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.justice.gov\/eoir\/page\/file\/1008261\/download\"><strong>UK Home Office report<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0, when reservists were called up in March-April 2014, 70% did\u00a0<em>not<\/em>\u00a0show up for the first session, 80% for the second, 90% for the third and 95% for the fourth.\u00a0In October\/November 2017,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/ipress.ua\/ru\/news\/v_vsu_zayavyly_o_70_neyavky_vo_vremya_osennego_pryziva_237367.html\"><strong>70% of callers did not show up<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0during the\u00a0<em>\u201c\u00a0\u00a0Autumn 2017\u00a0\u00a0\u201d callback campaign.\u00a0<\/em>This does not include\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/observer.com\/2017\/06\/ukraine-war-soldiers-suicide\/\"><strong>suicides<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.refworld.org\/docid\/593a581b4.html\"><strong>desertions<\/strong><\/a>(often for the benefit of the autonomists) which reach up to 30% of the workforce in the ATO zone.\u00a0Young Ukrainians refuse to go and fight in the Donbass and prefer emigration, which also explains, at least partially, the country\u2019s demographic deficit.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense then turned to NATO to help it make its armed forces more \u201cattractive\u201d.\u00a0Having already worked on similar projects within the framework of the United Nations, I was asked by NATO to participate in a program intended to restore the image of the Ukrainian armed forces.\u00a0But it\u2019s a long process and the Ukrainians want to go quickly.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Thus, to compensate for the lack of soldiers, the Ukrainian government resorted to paramilitary militias.\u00a0They are essentially made up of foreign mercenaries, often far-right activists.\u00a0As of 2020, they constitute around 40% of Ukraine\u2019s forces and number\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/graphics.reuters.com\/RUSSIA-UKRAINE\/dwpkrkwkgvm\/\"><strong>around 102,000 men according to Reuters<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0.\u00a0They are armed, financed and trained by the United States, Great Britain, Canada and France.\u00a0There are more than 19 nationalities \u2013 including Swiss.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Western countries have therefore clearly created and supported\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.usatoday.com\/story\/news\/world\/2022\/03\/05\/russia-invasion-ukraine-attention-extremist-regiment-nazi\/9368016002\/?gnt-cfr=1\"><strong>Ukrainian far-right militias<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0.\u00a0In October 2021, the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.jpost.com\/diaspora\/western-countries-training-far-right-extremists-in-ukraine-report-682411\"><strong>Jerusalem Post<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0sounded the alarm by denouncing the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.illiberalism.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/IERES-Papers-no-11-September-2021-FINAL.pdf\"><strong>Centuria<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0project .\u00a0These militias have been operating in the Donbass since 2014, with Western support.\u00a0Even if we can discuss the term \u201cNazi\u201d, the fact remains that these militias are violent, convey a nauseating ideology and are virulently anti-Semitic.\u00a0Their\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.jpost.com\/diaspora\/ukraine-progressively-restores-historical-memory-about-jews-652438\"><strong>anti-Semitism is more cultural than political<\/strong><\/a>, which is why the adjective \u201cNazi\u201d is not really appropriate.\u00a0Their hatred of the Jew comes from the great famines of the years 1920-1930 in Ukraine, resulting from the confiscation of crops by Stalin in order to finance the modernization of the Red Army.\u00a0However, this genocide \u2013 known in Ukraine under the name of\u00a0<em>Holodomor<\/em>\u00a0\u2013 was perpetrated by the NKVD (ancestor of the KGB) whose upper echelons of leadership were mainly composed of Jews.\u00a0That is why, today, Ukrainian extremists are asking Israel to\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.jpost.com\/diaspora\/antisemitism\/far-right-protesters-in-ukraine-demand-israel-apologize-for-communism-654711\"><strong>apologize for the crimes of communism<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0, as the\u00a0<em>Jerusalem Post<\/em>\u00a0reports .\u00a0We are therefore a long way from a \u201c\u00a0\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rts.ch\/info\/monde\/12928403-podcast-ukrainerussie-cest-quoi-cette-histoire-de-nazis.html\"><strong>rewriting of history\u00a0<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0\u201d by Vladimir Putin.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">These militias, stemming from the far-right groups that led the Euromaidan revolution in 2014, are made up of fanatical and brutal individuals.\u00a0The best known of these is the Azov regiment, whose emblem is reminiscent of that of the 2nd SS\u00a0<sup>Das\u00a0<\/sup><em>Reich<\/em>\u00a0Panzer Division\u00a0, which is the object of real veneration in Ukraine, for having liberated Kharkov from the Soviets in 1943, before to perpetrate the massacre of Oradour-sur-Glane in 1944, in France.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Among the famous figures of the Azov regiment was the opponent Roman Protassevich, arrested in 2021 by the Belarusian authorities following the case of RyanAir flight FR4978.\u00a0On May 23, 2021, there is talk of the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rts.ch\/info\/monde\/12220530-la-bielorussie-a-arrete-un-militant-apres-avoir-intercepte-son-avion.html\"><strong>deliberate hijacking of an airliner<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0by a MiG-29 \u2013 with\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/-LfZt4ESJ44?t=148\"><strong>Putin\u2019s agreement<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0, of course \u2013 to arrest Protassevich, although the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.belta.by\/president\/view\/komandu-prinjat-v-minske-zaminirovannyj-samolet-ryanair-dal-lichno-lukashenko-442580-2021\/)\"><strong>information then available<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0does not confirm this scenario in any way.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But it must then be shown that President Lukashenko is a thug and Protassevich a \u201cjournalist\u201d in love with democracy.\u00a0However, a rather edifying investigation produced by an\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.foiaresearch.net\/person\/roman-protasevich\"><strong>American NGO in 2020<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0, highlighted Protassevich\u2019s far-right militant activities.\u00a0Western conspiracy then sets in motion and unscrupulous media\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rts.ch\/audio-podcast\/2021\/audio\/portrait-de-l-opposant-belarusse-roman-protassevitch-25201392.html\"><strong>\u201cgroom\u201d his biography<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0.\u00a0Finally, in January 2022,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/19\/ICAO-Fact-Finding-Investigation-Report_FR497849.pdf\"><strong>the ICAO report<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0is published and shows that despite some procedural errors, Belarus acted in accordance with the rules in force and that the MiG-29 took off 15 minutes after the RyanAir pilot decided to land in Minsk.\u00a0So no Belarus plot and even less with Putin.\u00a0Ah!\u2026 One more detail: Protassevich,<a href=\"https:\/\/ici.radio-canada.ca\/nouvelle\/1798764\/opposant-belarus-entrevue-television-torture-interdiction-vols-ue\"><strong>cruelly tortured<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0by Belarusian police, is now free.\u00a0Those who would like to correspond with him, can go to his\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/protas_by\"><strong>Twitter<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0account .<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The labeling of \u201cNazi\u201d or \u201cneo-Nazi\u201d given to Ukrainian paramilitaries is considered\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.lemonde.fr\/international\/live\/2021\/05\/28\/avion-detourne-par-la-bielorussie-sanctions-de-l-union-europeenne-posez-vos-questions_6081892_3210.html\"><strong>Russian propaganda<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0.\u00a0Perhaps ;\u00a0but that is not the opinion of The\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.timesofisrael.com\/hundreds-march-in-ukraine-in-annual-tribute-to-nazi-collaborator\/\"><strong>Times of Israel<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0, the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.thenation.com\/article\/politics\/neo-nazis-far-right-ukraine\/\"><strong>Simon Wiesenthal Center<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0or the Counterterrorism\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/ctc.usma.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/CTC-SENTINEL-042020.pdf\"><strong>Center<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0at West Point Academy.\u00a0But this remains debatable, because, in 2014,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsweek.com\/evidence-war-crimes-committed-ukrainian-nationalist-volunteers-grows-269604\"><strong>Newsweek magazine<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0seemed to associate them with\u2026 the Islamic State.\u00a0A choice !<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So the West supports and continues to arm militias that have been guilty of numerous\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.osce.org\/files\/f\/documents\/e\/7\/233896.pdf\"><strong>crimes against civilian populations since 2014\u00a0<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0: rape, torture and massacres.\u00a0But while the Swiss government has been very quick to impose sanctions against Russia, it has not adopted any against Ukraine, which has been slaughtering its own population since 2014. In fact, those who\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.osce.org\/files\/f\/documents\/6\/0\/394781.pdf\"><strong>defend the rights of the men in Ukraine<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0have long condemned the actions of these groups, but have not been followed by our governments.\u00a0Because, in reality, we are not trying to help Ukraine, but to fight Russia.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The integration of these paramilitary forces into the National Guard was not at all accompanied by a \u201cdenazification\u201d, as\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rts.ch\/info\/monde\/12928403-podcast-ukrainerussie-cest-quoi-cette-histoire-de-nazis.html\"><strong>some claim<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0.\u00a0Among the many examples, that of the insignia of the Azov Regiment is edifying:<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In 2022, very schematically, the Ukrainian armed forces fighting the Russian offensive are structured as:<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2013 Army, subordinate to the Ministry of Defence: it is articulated in 3 army corps and composed of maneuver formations (tanks, heavy artillery, missiles, etc.).<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2013 National Guard, which depends on the Ministry of the Interior and is articulated in 5 territorial commands.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The National Guard is therefore a territorial defense force which is not part of the Ukrainian army.\u00a0It includes paramilitary militias, called \u201d\u00a0\u00a0<em>volunteer battalions\u201d<\/em>\u00a0(\u0434\u043e\u0431\u0440\u043e\u0432\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0447\u0456 \u0431\u0430\u0442\u0430\u043b\u044c\u0439\u043e\u043d\u0456), also known by the evocative name of\u00a0<em>\u201d\u00a0\u00a0retaliatory battalions\u00a0\u00a0\u201c,<\/em>\u00a0composed of infantry.\u00a0Mainly trained for urban combat, they now ensure the defense of cities such as Kharkov, Mariupol, Odessa, kyiv, etc.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>PART TWO: THE WAR<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Former head of the Warsaw Pact forces in the Swiss strategic intelligence service, I observe with sadness \u2013 but not astonishment \u2013 \u200b\u200bthat our services are no longer in a position to understand the military situation in Ukraine.\u00a0The self-proclaimed \u201cexperts\u201d who parade across our screens tirelessly relay the same information modulated by the assertion that Russia \u2013 and Vladimir Putin \u2013 is irrational.\u00a0Let\u2019s take a step back.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>THE OUTBREAK OF WAR<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Since November 2021, the Americans have constantly brandished the threat of a Russian invasion against Ukraine.\u00a0However, the Ukrainians do not seem to agree.\u00a0Why ?<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We have to go back to March 24, 2021. On that day, Volodymyr Zelensky issued\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.president.gov.ua\/documents\/1172021-37533\"><strong>a decree<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0for the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.president.gov.ua\/news\/prezident-zatverdiv-strategiyu-deokupaciyi-ta-reintegraciyi-67321\"><strong>reconquest of Crimea<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0and began to deploy his forces towards the south of the country.\u00a0Simultaneously, several NATO exercises were conducted between the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea, accompanied by a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.janes.com\/defence-news\/news-detail\/us-uk-surge-surveillance-flights-over-ukraine-and-black-sea\"><strong>significant increase in reconnaissance flights<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0along the Russian border.\u00a0Russia then conducts a few exercises to test the operational readiness of its troops and show that it is following the evolution of the situation.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Things calm down until October-November with the end of the ZAPAD 21 exercises, whose troop movements are interpreted as a reinforcement for an offensive against Ukraine.\u00a0However, even the Ukrainian authorities refute the idea of \u200b\u200bRussian preparations for a war and Oleksiy Reznikov, Ukrainian Minister of Defense declares that there has\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/kyivindependent.com\/hot-topic\/defense-minister-downplays-russias-threat-says-its-similar-to-that-of-spring-2021\/\"><strong>been no change<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0on its border since the spring.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In violation of the Minsk Accords, Ukraine is conducting aerial operations in Donbass using drones, including at least\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/nationalinterest.org\/feature\/ukraine%E2%80%99s-recent-drone-strike-reignites-tensions-donbass-195709\"><strong>one strike against a fuel depot in Donetsk in October 2021<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0.\u00a0The American press points this out, but not the Europeans and no one condemns these violations.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In February 2022, events rush.\u00a0On February 7, during his visit to Moscow, Emmanuel Macron reaffirms to Vladimir Putin\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=QHDAYz7g4u4\"><strong>his attachment to the Minsk Accords<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0, a commitment he will repeat after his\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=InrDN7jYVOs\"><strong>interview with Volodymyr Zelensky<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0the next day.\u00a0But on February 11, in Berlin, after 9 hours of work, the meeting of the political advisers of the leaders of the\u00a0<em>\u201d\u00a0\u00a0Normandy format\u00a0\u00a0\u201c<\/em>\u00a0ends, without concrete result: the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.aa.com.tr\/en\/europe\/normandy-format-talks-in-berlin-end-without-tangible-results\/2499568\"><strong>Ukrainians still and always refuse to apply the Accords<\/strong><\/a>of Minsk, apparently under pressure from the United States.\u00a0Vladimir Putin then notes that Macron has made empty promises to him and that the West is not ready to enforce the Accords, as they have been doing for eight years.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ukrainian preparations in the contact zone continue.\u00a0The Russian Parliament is alarmed and on February 15 asks Vladimir Putin to recognize the independence of the Republics, which he refuses.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On February 17, President Joe Biden\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2022\/02\/17\/politics\/joe-biden-russia\/index.html\"><strong>announces that Russia will attack Ukraine<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0in the coming days.\u00a0How does he know?\u00a0Mystery\u2026 But since the 16th, the artillery shelling of the populations of Donbass has increased dramatically, as shown by the daily reports of OSCE observers.\u00a0Naturally, neither the media, nor the European Union, nor NATO, nor any Western government reacts and intervenes.\u00a0We will say later that this is Russian disinformation.\u00a0In fact, it seems that the European Union and some countries\u00a0<em>purposely<\/em>\u00a0glossed over the massacre of the people of Donbass, knowing that it would provoke Russian intervention.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">At the same time, there are reports of acts of sabotage in the Donbass.\u00a0On January 18, Donbass fighters intercept saboteurs equipped with Western equipment and speaking Polish seeking to create chemical incidents in\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/sprotyv.info\/news\/okkupanty-minirujut-mesta-hraneniya-ammiaka-na-zavode-stirol-dannye-gruppy-is\"><strong>Gorlivka<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0.\u00a0They could be\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/news.yahoo.com\/cia-trained-ukrainian-paramilitaries-may-take-central-role-if-russia-invades-185258008.html\"><strong>CIA mercenaries<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0, led or \u201cadvised\u201d by Americans and made up of Ukrainian or European fighters, to carry out sabotage actions in the Donbass Republics.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In fact, as early as February 16, Joe Biden knows that the Ukrainians began to shell the civilian populations of Donbass, putting Vladimir Putin in front of a difficult choice: to help Donbass militarily and create an international problem or to sit idle and watch Russian speakers. from the Donbass being run over.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If he decides to intervene, Vladimir Putin can invoke the international obligation of \u201c\u00a0\u00a0<em>Responsibility To Protect<\/em>\u00a0\u00a0\u201d (R2P).\u00a0But he knows that whatever its nature or scale, the intervention will trigger a shower of sanctions.\u00a0Therefore, whether its intervention is limited to the Donbass or whether it goes further to put pressure on the West for the status of Ukraine, the price to be paid will be the same.\u00a0This is what he explains in his speech on February 21.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That day, he acceded to the request of the Duma and recognized the independence of the two Republics of Donbass and, in the process, he signed treaties of friendship and assistance with them.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Ukrainian artillery bombardments on the populations of Donbass continued and, on February 23, the two Republics requested military aid from Russia.\u00a0On the 24th, Vladimir Putin invokes Article 51 of the United Nations Charter which provides for mutual military assistance within the framework of a defensive alliance.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In order to make the Russian intervention totally illegal in the eyes of the public we\u00a0<em>deliberately<\/em>\u00a0obscure the fact that the war actually started on February 16th.\u00a0The Ukrainian army was preparing to attack the Donbass as early as 2021, as certain Russian and European intelligence services were well aware\u2026 The lawyers will judge.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In his speech on February 24, Vladimir Putin stated the two objectives of his operation: to \u201cdemilitarize\u201d and \u201cdenazify\u201d Ukraine.\u00a0It is therefore not a question of seizing Ukraine, nor even, in all likelihood, of occupying it and certainly not of destroying it.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">From there, our visibility on the course of the operation is limited: the Russians have an excellent security of operations (OPSEC) and the detail of their planning is not known.\u00a0But fairly quickly, the course of operations makes it possible to understand how the strategic objectives were translated into the operational plan.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><em>\u2013 Demilitarization:<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0ground destruction of Ukrainian aviation, air defense systems and reconnaissance assets;<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0neutralization of command and intelligence structures (C3I), as well as the main logistics routes in the depth of the territory;<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0encirclement of the bulk of the Ukrainian army massed in the south-east of the country.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><em>\u2013 Denazification:<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0destruction or neutralization of volunteer battalions operating in the cities of Odessa, Kharkov and Mariupol, as well as in various facilities on the territory.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>THE \u201cDEMILITARIZATION\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Russian offensive proceeds in a very \u201cclassic\u201d manner.\u00a0At first \u2013 as the Israelis had done in 1967 \u2013 with the destruction on the ground of the air forces in the very first hours.\u00a0Then, we witness a simultaneous progression on several axes according to the principle of \u201cflowing water\u201d: we advance wherever resistance is weak and we leave the cities (very voracious in troops) for later.\u00a0To the north, the Chernobyl plant is occupied immediately to prevent acts of sabotage.\u00a0The images of Ukrainian and Russian soldiers\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/intelslava\/20722\"><strong>jointly guarding<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0the plant are naturally not shown\u2026<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The idea that Russia is trying to take over Kiev, the capital, to eliminate Zelensky, typically comes from the West: this is what they did in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and what they\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=e4phB-_pXDM&amp;t=1224s\"><strong>wanted to do in Syria with the help of the Islamic State<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0.\u00a0But Vladimir Putin never intended to take down or overthrow Zelensky.\u00a0On the contrary, Russia seeks to keep him in power by pushing him to negotiate by encircling kyiv.\u00a0He had refused to do so far to apply the Minsk Accords, but now the Russians want to obtain Ukraine\u2019s neutrality.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Many Western commentators marveled that the Russians continued to seek a negotiated solution while conducting military operations.\u00a0The explanation is in the Russian strategic conception, since Soviet times.\u00a0For Westerners, war begins when politics ceases.\u00a0However, the Russian approach follows a Clausewitzian inspiration: war is the continuity of politics and one can pass fluidly from one to the other, even during combat.\u00a0This creates pressure on the opponent and pushes him to negotiate.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">From an operational point of view, the Russian offensive was an example of its kind: in six days, the Russians seized a territory as vast as the United Kingdom, with a speed of advance greater than what the Wehrmacht made in 1940.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The bulk of the Ukrainian army was deployed in the south of the country for a major operation against Donbass.\u00a0This is why the Russian forces were able to encircle it from the beginning of March in the \u201ccauldron\u201d between Slavyansk, Kramatorsk and Severodonetsk, by a thrust coming from the east via Kharkov and another coming from the south from the Crimea.\u00a0The troops of the Republics of Donetsk (DPR) and Lugansk (RPL) complete the action of the Russian forces with a push from the East.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">At this stage, the Russian forces are slowly tightening the noose, but are no longer under time pressure.\u00a0Their objective of demilitarization is practically achieved and the residual Ukrainian forces no longer have an operational and strategic command structure.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The \u201cslowdown\u201d that our \u201cexperts\u201d attribute to poor logistics is only the consequence of having achieved the objectives set.\u00a0Russia does not seem to want to engage in an occupation of the whole Ukrainian territory.\u00a0In fact, it seems rather that Russia is trying to limit its advance to the country\u2019s linguistic border.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Our media speak of indiscriminate bombardments against civilian populations, particularly in Kharkov, and dantesque images are broadcast on a loop.\u00a0However, Gonzalo Lira, a Latin American who lives there, presents us with a calm city on\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=Uecv6AX8P3Q\"><strong>March 10<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0, and on\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/b8RNhQjjn-4\"><strong>March 11<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0.\u00a0Admittedly it\u2019s a big city and you can\u2019t see everything, but that seems to indicate that we are not in the total war that we are being served continuously on our screens.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As for the Republics of Donbass, they have \u201cliberated\u201d their own territories and are fighting in the city of Mariupol.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>\u201cDENAZIFICATION\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In cities like Kharkov, Mariupol and Odessa, defense is provided by paramilitary militias.\u00a0They know that the objective of \u201cdenazification\u201d is aimed primarily at them.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For an attacker in an urbanized area, civilians are a problem.\u00a0This is why Russia seeks to create humanitarian corridors to empty the cities of civilians and leave only the militias in order to fight them more easily.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Conversely, these militias seek to keep civilians in the cities in order to dissuade the Russian army from coming to fight there.\u00a0This is why they are reluctant to implement these corridors and do everything so that Russian efforts are in vain: they can thus use the civilian population as \u201chuman shields\u201d.\u00a0Videos showing civilians trying to leave Mariupol and being beaten up by fighters from the Azov regiment are naturally carefully censored here.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On Facebook, the Azov group was considered in the same category as the Islamic State and subject to\u00a0the platform\u2019s\u00a0<em>\u201d\u00a0\u00a0dangerous individuals and organizations policy\u00a0\u00a0\u201d .\u00a0<\/em>It was therefore forbidden to glorify him, and the \u201cposts\u201d that were favorable to him were systematically banned.\u00a0But on February 24, Facebook changed its policy and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/theintercept.com\/2022\/02\/24\/ukraine-facebook-azov-battalion-russia\/\"><strong>allowed posts favorable<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0to the militia.\u00a0In the same spirit, in March, the platform authorizes, in the former Eastern European countries,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/technology\/2022\/mar\/11\/facebook-and-instagram-let-users-call-for-death-to-russian-soldiers-over-ukraine\"><strong>calls for the murder of Russian soldiers and leaders<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0.\u00a0So much for the values \u200b\u200bthat inspire our leaders, as we will see.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Our media propagate a romantic image of popular resistance.\u00a0It is this image that has led the European Union to finance the distribution of arms to the civilian population.\u00a0It is a criminal act.\u00a0In my role as chief of doctrine for peacekeeping operations at the UN, I worked on the issue of the protection of civilians.\u00a0We then saw that violence against civilians took place in very specific contexts.\u00a0Especially when weapons abound and there are no command structures.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Now, these command structures are the essence of armies: their function is to channel the use of force according to an objective.\u00a0By arming citizens in a haphazard fashion as is currently the case, the EU turns them into combatants, with the attendant consequences: potential targets.\u00a0Moreover, without command, without operational goals, the distribution of arms inevitably leads to settling of scores, banditry and actions that are more deadly than effective.\u00a0War becomes a matter of emotions.\u00a0Force becomes violence.\u00a0This is what happened in Tawarga (Libya) from August 11 to 13, 2011, where 30,000 black Africans were massacred with weapons parachuted (illegally) by France.\u00a0Moreover,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/rusi.org\/explore-our-research\/publications\/commentary\/what-do-uk-weapons-deliveries-add-ukraines-armed-forces\"><strong>the British Royal Institute for Strategic Studies<\/strong><\/a>(RUSI) sees no added value in these arms deliveries.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Moreover, by delivering arms to a country at war, one exposes oneself to being considered as a belligerent.\u00a0The Russian strikes on March 13, 2022, against the Mykolaiv air base follow\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2022\/3\/12\/russia-says-it-could-target-western-arms-supplies-to-ukraine\"><strong>Russian warnings<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0that weapons transports would be treated as hostile targets.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The EU repeats the disastrous experience of the Third Reich in the last hours of the Battle of Berlin.\u00a0War should be left to the military and when one side has lost, it should be admitted.\u00a0And if there is to be resistance, it must imperatively be led and structured.\u00a0However, we are doing exactly the opposite: we are pushing citizens to go and fight and at the same time, Facebook is allowing\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/technology\/2022\/mar\/11\/facebook-and-instagram-let-users-call-for-death-to-russian-soldiers-over-ukraine\"><strong>calls for the murder of Russian soldiers and leaders<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0.\u00a0So much for the values \u200b\u200bthat inspire us.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In some intelligence services, this irresponsible decision is seen as a way of using the Ukrainian population as cannon fodder to fight Vladimir Putin\u2019s Russia.\u00a0This kind of murderous decision had to be left to the colleagues of Ursula von der Leyen\u2019s grandfather.\u00a0It would have been wiser to engage in negotiations and thus obtain guarantees for the civilian populations than to add fuel to the fire.\u00a0It\u2019s easy to be combative with other people\u2019s blood\u2026<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>MARIUPOL MATERNITY<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It is important to understand beforehand that it is not the Ukrainian army which ensures the defense of Mariupol, but the Azov militia, composed of foreign mercenaries.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In its summary of the situation of March 7, 2022,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/russiaun.ru\/en\/news\/070322n\"><strong>the Russian UN mission<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0in New York states that \u201d\u00a0\u00a0<em>Residents report that the Ukrainian armed forces have expelled the personnel of the Natal Hospital No. 1 from the city of Mariupol and have installed a shooting station inside the establishment<\/em>\u00a0.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On March 8, the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/lenta.ru\/articles\/2022\/03\/08\/mariupol\/\"><strong>independent Russian media Lenta.ru<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0published the testimony of civilians from Mariupol who said that the maternity hospital was taken over by the militias of the Azov regiment, and chased out the civilian occupants, threatening them with their weapons.\u00a0They thus confirm the statements of the Russian ambassador a few hours earlier.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Mariupol hospital occupies a dominant position, perfectly adequate for installing anti-tank weapons and for observation.\u00a0On March 9, Russian forces hit the building.\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2022\/03\/09\/europe\/russia-invasion-ukraine-evacuations-03-09-intl\/index.html\"><strong>According to CNN<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0, there are 17 injured, but the footage shows no casualties on the premises and there is no evidence that the reported casualties are related to this strike.\u00a0We talk about children, but in reality, we see nothing.\u00a0It may be true, but it may be false\u2026 Which does not prevent\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.timesofisrael.com\/eu-condemns-russian-bombing-of-mariupol-maternity-hospital-as-a-war-crime\/\"><strong>EU leaders from seeing it as a war crime<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0\u2026 Which allows Zelensky, just afterwards, to claim a no-fly zone over Ukraine\u2026<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In reality, we don\u2019t know exactly what happened.\u00a0But the sequence of events tends to confirm that the Russian forces struck a position of the Azov regiment and that the maternity ward was then free of all civilians.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The problem is that the paramilitary militias that ensure the defense of cities are encouraged by the international community not to respect the customs of war.\u00a0It seems that the Ukrainians have re-enacted the scenario of the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=LmfVs3WaE9Y\"><strong>maternity hospital in Kuwait City in 1990<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0, which had been completely staged by the firm Hill &amp; Knowlton for the amount of 10.7 million dollars in order to convince the United Nations Security Council to intervene in Iraq for Operation\u00a0<em>Desert Shield\/Storm<\/em>\u00a0.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Western politicians have also accepted strikes against civilians in Donbass for eight years, without adopting any sanctions against the Ukrainian government.\u00a0We have long since entered into a dynamic where Western politicians have agreed to sacrifice international law to their objective\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rand.org\/content\/dam\/rand\/pubs\/research_reports\/RR3000\/RR3063\/RAND_RR3063.pdf\"><strong>of weakening Russia<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>PART THREE: CONCLUSIONS<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As a former intelligence professional, the first thing that strikes me is the total absence of Western intelligence services in representing the situation for a year.\u00a0In Switzerland, the services\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.20min.ch\/fr\/story\/les-services-secrets-suisses-critiques-pour-leur-manque-danticipation-324567615362?utm_source=pocket_mylist\"><strong>have been criticized<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0for not having provided a correct picture of the situation.\u00a0In fact, it seems that all over the Western world, the services have been overwhelmed by the politicians.\u00a0The problem is that it is the politicians who decide: the best intelligence service in the world is useless if the decision-maker does not listen to it.\u00a0This is what happened during this crisis.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That said, while some intelligence services had a very precise and rational image of the situation, others clearly had the same image as that propagated by our media.\u00a0In this crisis, the services of the countries of the \u201cnew Europe\u201d played an important role.\u00a0The problem is that, by experience, I found that they were extremely bad on the analytical level: doctrinaire, they do not have the intellectual and political independence necessary to appreciate a situation with a military \u201cquality\u201d.\u00a0It is better to have them as enemies than as friends.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Then, it seems that in some European countries, politicians have deliberately ignored their services to respond ideologically to the situation.\u00a0This is why this crisis has been irrational from the start.\u00a0It will be observed that all the documents that have been presented to the public during this crisis have been presented by politicians on the basis of commercial sources\u2026<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Some Western politicians obviously wanted there to be a conflict.\u00a0In the United States, the attack scenarios presented by Anthony Blinken to the Security Council were only the fruit of the imagination of a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/national-security\/2022\/02\/14\/white-house-prepares-russian-invasion\/\"><strong>Tiger Team working for him\u00a0<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0: he did exactly like Donald Rumsfeld in 2002, who thus \u201cbypassed\u201d the CIA and other intelligence services that were far less assertive about Iraqi chemical weapons.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The dramatic developments we are witnessing today have causes we knew about, but refused to see:<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2013 on the strategic level, the expansion of NATO (which we have not dealt with here);<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2013 on the political level, the Western refusal to implement the Minsk Agreements;<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2013 and on the operational level, the continuous and repeated attacks on the civilian populations of Donbass for years and the dramatic increase at the end of February 2022.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In other words, we can naturally deplore and condemn the Russian attack.\u00a0But WE (that is to say: the United States, France and the European Union in the lead) have\u00a0<em>created<\/em>\u00a0the conditions for a conflict to break out.\u00a0We show compassion for the Ukrainian people and the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/data2.unhcr.org\/en\/situations\/ukraine\"><strong>two million refugees<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0.\u00a0It\u2019s good.\u00a0But if we had had a modicum of compassion for the same number of\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/reliefweb.int\/report\/ukraine\/ukraine-humanitarian-response-plan-2022-february-2022-enuk?utm_source=pocket_mylist\"><strong>refugees from the Ukrainian populations of Donbass<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0massacred by their own government and who have been accumulating in Russia for eight years, none of this would probably have happened.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Whether the term \u201cgenocide\u201d applies to the abuses suffered by the populations of Donbass is an open question.\u00a0This term is generally reserved for larger cases (Holocaust, etc.), however, the definition given\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ohchr.org\/FR\/ProfessionalInterest\/Pages\/CrimeOfGenocide.aspx\"><strong>by the Genocide Convention<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0is probably broad enough to apply.\u00a0Lawyers will appreciate.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Clearly, this conflict has led us into hysteria.\u00a0Sanctions seem to have become the preferred tool of our foreign policies.\u00a0If we had insisted that Ukraine respect the Minsk Accords, which we negotiated and endorsed, none of this would have happened.\u00a0The condemnation of Vladimir Putin is also ours.\u00a0There is no point in whining after the fact, we had to act before.\u00a0However, neither Emmanuel Macron (as guarantor and as a member of the UN Security Council), nor Olaf Scholz, nor Volodymyr Zelensky have respected their commitments.\u00a0Ultimately, the real defeat is that of those who have no voice.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The European Union was unable to promote the implementation of the Minsk agreements, on the contrary, it did not react when Ukraine bombarded its own population in the Donbass.\u00a0Had she done so, Vladimir Putin would not have needed to react.\u00a0Absent from the diplomatic phase, the EU distinguished itself by fueling the conflict.\u00a0On February 27, the Ukrainian government\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/news\/world\/ukraine-president-kyiv-kharkiv-foreign-fighters-join-russia-putin-rcna17844\"><strong>agrees to start negotiations<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0with Russia.\u00a0But a few hours later, the European Union voted a budget of\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2022-02-27\/eu-approves-450-million-euros-in-lethal-military-aid-for-ukraine\"><strong>450 million euros to supply arms<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0to Ukraine, adding fuel to the fire.\u00a0From there, the Ukrainians feel that they will not need to come to an agreement.\u00a0The resistance of the Azov militias in Mariupol will even cause<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rferl.org\/a\/european-union-sanctions-russia-ukraine-borrell\/31748462.html\"><strong>a raise of 500 million euros for weapons<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In Ukraine, with the blessing of Western countries, those who are in favor of a negotiation are eliminated.\u00a0This is the case of Denis Kireyev, one of the Ukrainian negotiators,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.timesofisrael.com\/ukraine-reports-claim-negotiator-shot-for-treason-officials-say-he-died-in-intel-op\/\"><strong>assassinated on March 5<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0by the Ukrainian secret service (SBU) because he is too favorable to Russia and is considered a traitor.\u00a0The same fate is reserved for Dmitry Demyanenko, former deputy head of the main directorate of the SBU for Kiev and its region,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ZWHpVnrwfLY\"><strong>assassinated on March 10<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0, because too favorable to an agreement with Russia: he is killed by the\u00a0<em>Mirotvorets militia\u00a0(\u201d\u00a0\u00a0Peacemaker\u00a0\u00a0\u201c).\u00a0<\/em>This militia is associated with the\u00a0<em>Mirotvorets<\/em>\u00a0website which lists the \u201d\u00a0\u00a0<em>enemies of Ukraine\u201d<\/em>, with their personal data, address and telephone numbers, so that they\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.mirror.co.uk\/news\/world-news\/dark-website-lists-russian-spies-26051893\"><strong>can be harassed or even eliminated<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0\u00a0;\u00a0a punishable practice in many countries, but\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.refworld.org\/docid\/58ec89ad13.html\"><strong>not in Ukraine<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0.\u00a0The UN and some European countries have demanded its closure\u2026 refused by the Rada.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Eventually, the price will be high, but Vladimir Putin will likely achieve the goals he set for himself.\u00a0Its ties with Beijing have solidified.\u00a0China emerges as a mediator of the conflict, while Switzerland enters the list of enemies of Russia.\u00a0The Americans must ask Venezuela and Iran for oil to get out of the energy impasse in which they have gotten themselves: Juan Guaido leaves the scene definitively and the United States must pitifully reverse the sanctions imposed on their enemies.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Western ministers who seek to\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=Ntzacqlm-Ac\"><strong>collapse the Russian economy<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0and make the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=n9BGOE_eVQc\"><strong>Russian people\u00a0<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/n9BGOE_eVQc?t=280\"><strong>suffer<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0,\u00a0even calling for the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/lequotidien.lu\/politique-societe\/jean-asselborn-eliminer-physiquement-vladimir-poutine\/\"><strong>assassination<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0of Putin, show (even if they partially reversed the form of their remarks, but not on bottom!) that our leaders are no better than the ones we hate.\u00a0Because, sanctioning Russian athletes from the Para-Olympic Games or Russian artists has absolutely nothing to do with a fight against Putin.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Thus, therefore, we recognize that Russia is a democracy since we consider that the Russian people are responsible for the war.\u00a0If not, then why are we trying to punish an entire population for the fault of one?\u00a0Remember that collective punishment is prohibited by the Geneva Conventions\u2026<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The lesson to be drawn from this conflict is our sense of variable geometry humanity.\u00a0If we were so attached to peace and to Ukraine, why didn\u2019t we encourage her more to respect the agreements that she had signed and that the members of the Security Council had approved?<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Media integrity is measured by their willingness to work under the terms of the Munich Charter.\u00a0They had succeeded in propagating\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.hrw.org\/fr\/news\/2020\/05\/12\/le-covid-19-attise-le-racisme-anti-asiatique-et-la-xenophobie-dans-le-monde-entier\"><strong>hatred of the Chinese<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0during the Covid crisis and their polarized message leads to the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/fr.metrotime.be\/belgique\/harcelement-et-racisme-les-russes-de-belgique-victimes-collaterales-de-linvasion-russe\"><strong>same effects against the Russians<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0.\u00a0Journalism is stripping itself more and more of professionalism to become militant\u2026<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As Goethe said: \u201c\u00a0\u00a0<em>The greater the light, the darker the shadow<\/em>\u00a0\u00a0\u201d.\u00a0The more the sanctions against Russia are excessive, the more the cases where we have done nothing highlight our racism and our servility.\u00a0Why has no Western politician reacted to the strikes against the civilian populations of Donbass for eight years?<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">After all, what makes the conflict in Ukraine more blameworthy than the war in Iraq, Afghanistan or Libya?\u00a0What sanctions have we adopted against those who have deliberately lied before the international community to wage unjust, unjustified, unjustifiable and murderous wars?\u00a0Did we try to \u201cmake suffer\u201d the American people who had lied to us (because it\u2019s a democracy!) before the war in Iraq?\u00a0Have we even adopted a single sanction against the countries, companies or politicians who are fueling the conflict in Yemen, considered the \u201d\u00a0\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.un.org\/press\/fr\/2018\/cs13586.doc.htm\"><strong>worst humanitarian disaster in the world\u00a0<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0\u201c?\u00a0Have we sanctioned the countries of the European Union who practice the most abject torture on their territory for the benefit of the United States?<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">To ask the question is to answer it\u2026 and the answer is not glorious.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong>9.4.22<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400; text-align: center;\">____________<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">also see:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/republicancommunist.org\/blog\/2022\/05\/01\/may-day-a-ukrainian-tradition\/\">May Day &#8211; a Ukrainian tradition &#8211; Ukrainian Solidarity Campaign<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>2. \u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/Ukrainian socialist - the future of demilitarisation lies in stopping Russia's war machine now - Vitaly Dudin, Sotsyalnyi Ruch\">Ukrainian socialist &#8211; the future of demilitarisation lies in stopping Russia&#8217;s war machine now &#8211; Vitaly Dudin, Sotsyalnyi Ruch<\/a><\/p>\n<p>3. <a href=\"http:\/\/republicancommunist.org\/blog\/2022\/04\/24\/against-the-ravages-of-campism-and-for-the-victory-of-the-ukrainian-people\/\">Against the rampages of campism and for the victory of the Ukrainian people<\/a><\/p>\n<p>4. <a href=\"http:\/\/republicancommunist.org\/blog\/2022\/04\/04\/putins-war-and-jewish-history\/\">Putin&#8217;s war and Jewish history &#8211; Brendan McGeever<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The following article by Jaques Baud, intelligence and security consultant and former NATO military analyst, has been much posted by those on the Left opposed to giving support to the Ukrainian people in their opposition to Putin&#8217;s invasion. The EL&amp;SD Editorial Board \u00a0voted by a majority to post this article. Allan Armstrong has written a&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1858,1861,1867,1854,1845,1868,1847,1848],"tags":[9142],"class_list":["post-21432","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-oppression-liberation","category-alienation-self-determination","category-emancipation-liberation-and-self-determination","category-the-left-crisis","category-us-imperialism","category-against-imperialism","category-the-eu","category-ex-ussr","tag-author-jaques-baud"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":""},"views":7524,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/republicancommunist.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21432","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/republicancommunist.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/republicancommunist.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/republicancommunist.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/republicancommunist.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=21432"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"http:\/\/republicancommunist.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21432\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":22241,"href":"http:\/\/republicancommunist.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21432\/revisions\/22241"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/republicancommunist.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21432"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/republicancommunist.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=21432"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/republicancommunist.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=21432"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}